By Arieh Eldad

The U.S. intelligence report that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program four years ago hit the Israeli government like a bolt from the blue. The immediate implication is that the United States is not going to use military force against the Iranian nuclear industry. The line put forth by the Olmert government has collapsed, and Israel, which had hoped that Bush would take out Iran before he leaves the White House, is now alone. For the last two years, Olmert has been repeating a single mantra: Iran may be threatening to destroy Israel, but it is a threat to the whole world, and Israel should not play a major role in the fight against Iran; we should let the world do the work.

But the world does not hurry to fight for Jews. The Allies did not fight the Germans because of Auschwitz, and the British and French did not fight Egypt in 1956 because it had closed the Suez Canal to Israeli ships. The United States did not fight in Iraq because Israel was afraid of Saddam Hussein. The United States might have fought Iran were Israel a strategic asset in the Middle East that needs to be defended, or in order to prevent a regional conflagration, if not a world war. These scenarios have been ruled out by Olmert’s foolish policies. Israel has ceased to be an asset and has become a burden following its failure in the Lebanese War, when it was faced with a few hundred Hizbullah terrorists, and following its refusal to an American request to attack Syria. And because Israel argued from every possible platform that Iran is the world’s problem, the world will now decide how it wants to deal with this problem.

Had Israel announced that it would attack Iran and destroy its nuclear industry at any price and by whatever means necessary if by a certain date the free world had not done so, then a U.S. attack might have been a possibility, as the United States sought to avoid a regional war that might follow an Israeli attack. But after the Lebanese War, Israel is no longer a useful player in the war against the evil axis, and therefore Israel may end up being made useful in a different way; for instance, Israel may end up being an excuse, a legitimate reason to destroy Iran after Iran uses its nuclear arms against Israel. Until that time, Israel is the currency being used by the West to placate the Moslems for the catastrophe in Iraq. Olmert went to Annapolis to surrender and shortly afterwards President Bush betrayed him with the publication of the intelligence assessment.
Recently a contest was held in England to determine the joke most typical of British humor. The following story won: Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson goes on a camping trip. After a good dinner and a bottle of wine, they retire for the night, and go to sleep. Some hours later, Holmes wakes up and nudges his faithful friend.
‘Watson, look up at the sky and tell me what you see.”
I see millions and millions of stars, Holmes,” replies Watson.
“And what do you deduce from that?”
Watson ponders for a minute.
“Well, astronomically, it tells me that there are millions of galaxies and potentially billions of planets. Astrologically, I observe that Saturn is in Leo. Horologically, I deduce that the time is approximately a quarter past three.
“Meteorologically, I suspect that we will have a beautiful day tomorrow. Theologically, I can see that God is all powerful and that we are a small and insignificant part of the universe. What does it tell you, Holmes?”
Holmes is silent for a moment. ‘Watson, you idiot!” he says. “Someone has stolen our tent!”
This is what has happened to us. We have been so mired in analytical dialectics and reasoning that we have neglected to see the obvious. We have been so busy trying to convince the world that Iran is threatening the entire West, that we have neglected to prepare for the more reasonable possibility that we will have to fight alone. Olmert has been so busy trying to prove that he did not fail in the Lebanese War that he has ignored what the whole world knows: that Israel was defeated and that this disaster caused a drop in Israel’s stature and value on the world exchange. Ehud Barak is so busy threatening to begin a large military operation in Gaza that he has neglected to begin it, though such a move must precede any attack in Iran. Lieberman is so busy issuing threats that he has fallen asleep at his strategic post and not noticed that we were left alone. And Tzippi Livni is so busy obsessing about withdrawing from Judea and Samaria and thinking about her beautiful friendship with Condoleeza Rice that she has not noticed the poison Rice has prepared for Israel – the poisonous intelligence report claiming that Israel’s fears of Iran are mere paranoia. All of the above are busy with their own business and do not see the simple, obvious picture: In 2009, Iran will have nuclear weapons and our tent is gone. Israel will have to fight alone; but not with its current leadership.